Colorado, New Mexico, and the Southern Plains Could See Thanksgiving Snow — But Forecasters Say It’s Still a Toss-Up
COLORADO – If you’re hoping for a white Thanksgiving, you might just get your wish — at least in parts of the Rocky Mountains and Southern Plains.
New long-range weather guidance suggests a low to moderate probability of snow during Thanksgiving week, particularly across Colorado, New Mexico, and the Texas Panhandle, with smaller chances extending east into Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Early Model Signals: Some Snow Likely Out West
Meteorologists reviewing new model data say Thanksgiving week could bring the first real taste of winter to the central U.S., though the pattern remains highly uncertain.
The latest probabilistic snow map shows:
- Denver and northern Colorado: 50–60% chance of seeing snow
- Albuquerque (ABQ): similar odds for at least some flakes
- Amarillo and the Texas Panhandle: around 30–40%
- Oklahoma City (OKC): 20–30%
- Dallas–Fort Worth: a slim 10–20% chance
That means while the mountains are likely to turn white, lowland areas across the Plains will mostly just flirt with the possibility.
“This is one of those ‘don’t put away your coats yet’ forecasts,” said one meteorologist. “The cold air is there — it just depends on whether moisture lines up at the right time.”
Rocky Mountain States Most Favored for Accumulation
As usual, the higher elevations of Colorado and northern New Mexico stand the best chance at accumulating snow.
Meteorologists expect the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Pikes Peak region, and Colorado’s Front Range to pick up measurable snow late next week, possibly spilling into Thanksgiving weekend.
Ski resorts across the region are already watching this system closely, with hopes it could boost early-season snowpack heading into the busy holiday travel period.
Southern Plains Hold on to Slim Snow Hopes
While the map highlights a small chance of snow for places like Amarillo, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa, forecasters emphasize that these are early, model-based probabilities — not guarantees.
The pattern may shift north or weaken entirely, meaning the Southern Plains could see chilly rain instead of snow. Still, even a 20–30% snow chance this early in the season has weather watchers excited.
“The fact that models are even showing snow that far south right before Thanksgiving is pretty wild,” one weather enthusiast posted on X (formerly Twitter).
Holiday Travel Could Be Impacted if System Strengthens
If the developing system deepens as it moves across the West, it could bring slippery travel conditions for those heading over mountain passes or flying through hubs like Denver International Airport.
Meteorologists say the timing and intensity will become clearer closer to the weekend. For now, they advise travelers to monitor updates daily and allow flexibility in their Thanksgiving week plans.
Online Buzz: ‘Manifesting a White Thanksgiving’
Social media users across the West and Midwest are already sharing screenshots of the snow probability map with hopeful (and hilarious) captions.
One Colorado user wrote:
“If I can carve turkey and build a snowman in the same day, that’s peak Thanksgiving.”
A Texas Panhandle resident joked:
“We’ll probably just get cold rain, but a person can dream.”
And a New Mexico skier posted:
“50% snow chance? Say less. I’m waxing my skis tonight.”
What To Watch Next
Meteorologists expect several more model runs this week that could either increase or lower snow odds. If the storm track dips farther south, the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma could sneak into measurable snowfall territory.
If it shifts north, snow will mainly stay confined to the Rockies and High Plains — leaving the rest of the South with nothing but cold wind.
What Do You Think?
Would you welcome a snowy Thanksgiving week, or are you hoping the forecast stays dry for travel? Share your thoughts and follow the latest updates at chicagomusicguide.com.