Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee Face Multi-Day Winter Storm With Heavy Rain, Severe Thunderstorm Risk and Back-End Snow Potential

SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES — A complex and unusually dynamic winter storm setup is taking shape across the central and eastern United States, with Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and parts of the Mid-South and Great Lakes expected to see multiple hazards between Wednesday night and Sunday. Forecast data shows a powerful storm system capable of producing heavy rainfall, strong to severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and a possible transition to snow on the back side of the system as colder air moves in.

How This Storm System Is Developing

Forecast guidance shows a deep upper-level trough moving out of the western United States, supported by strong jet-stream winds at 500 mb sweeping into the Plains and Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a developing low pressure system tracks east-northeast, drawing warm, moisture-rich Gulf air northward ahead of a strong cold front.

This setup creates a classic multi-day storm sequence:

Wednesday night into Thursday: Elevated storms develop across parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and the Mid-South.
Friday into Friday night: The system matures, with widespread thunderstorms and a defined severe weather corridor.
Saturday into Sunday: Colder air wraps in behind the storm, raising the risk of snow or mixed precipitation farther north, including parts of the Great Lakes region.

Severe Weather Risk: Friday Is the Main Concern

The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a severe weather risk area for Friday, January 9, shifting it slightly southward based on updated model trends. Despite that shift, the signal remains clear: widespread strong to severe storms are possible.

Key ingredients shown in the data include:

Strong wind shear, especially in the lowest 1–3 km of the atmosphere
Marginal to moderate instability, which is unusual but sufficient for winter severe weather
High storm-relative helicity, supportive of rotating storms

If storms can fully organize, all severe hazards are possible, including damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes, particularly across Arkansas, northern Mississippi, western and central Alabama, and parts of Tennessee.

Heavy Rainfall Focus: Alabama and the Lower Mississippi Valley

ECMWF ensemble precipitation output highlights a swath of heavy rainfall centered on northern and central Alabama, extending west into Mississippi and east toward Tennessee.

Northern and central Alabama: Widespread 2–3 inches of rain, with localized higher totals
Mississippi and Tennessee: Generally 1.5–2.5 inches, especially near the frontal boundary
Southern Alabama and Gulf Coast: Closer to 1 inch or less

This rainfall is considered beneficial in many areas, but pockets of poor drainage flooding could occur where heavier bands set up or storms repeatedly track over the same locations.

Back-Side Cold Air and Snow Potential

As the system pulls northeast late Friday into the weekend, colder air wraps in behind the departing low. Several model solutions suggest:

A changeover from rain to snow across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
Some guidance even hints at snowfall totals approaching several inches, though this remains highly dependent on temperature trends

At this stage, exact snow amounts remain uncertain, but the signal for wintry impacts north of the primary rain band is increasing.

What Makes This Setup Notable

Winter severe weather events are often conditional, but this system stands out due to:

Strong upper-level dynamics
A prolonged moisture feed from the Gulf
Multiple forecast models showing consistent signals for both severe storms and heavy rain

While not everyone will see severe weather, the ingredients are clearly present, and even small shifts in timing or temperature could significantly change impacts at the local level.

What To Watch Over The Next Few Days

Wednesday night: Isolated elevated storms from north Texas into Oklahoma
Thursday: Conditional severe risk expands into the southern Plains and Mid-South
Friday: Highest confidence for widespread storms and severe weather
Weekend: Colder air and potential snow north of the storm track

This is a multi-day, evolving winter storm, and details will continue to sharpen as the event approaches. Weather conditions like this can change quickly, especially during the colder months when temperature gradients are tight.

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