California, Texas, Florida, Illinois and Nearly Entire U.S. Favored for Above-Normal Heat in Early March While Alaska and Maine Trend Cooler
UNITED STATES — A sweeping warm pattern is expected to dominate much of the country during March 4–10, 2026, with nearly every continental state favored to see above-normal temperatures, according to the latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8–14 Day Temperature Outlook issued February 24.
The only major exceptions to the widespread warmth are Alaska, which is projected to trend below normal, and Maine, where temperatures are expected to remain near normal.
Above-Normal Temperatures Expand Coast to Coast
The outlook map shows deep orange and red shading covering:
- California
- Arizona
- Nevada
- Texas
- Colorado
- Illinois
- Florida
- The Midwest
- The Southeast
- The Mid-Atlantic
- Much of the Northeast
These colors indicate an elevated probability — in many areas between 50% and 70% chance — of temperatures running above seasonal averages during the early-to-mid March window.
States stretching from the West Coast to the East Coast are encompassed in the warm signal, highlighting the breadth of this projected pattern.
Midwest and Central U.S. Show Strong Warm Signal
The most pronounced warm anomalies appear centered across the Central Plains and Midwest, including:
- Kansas
- Nebraska
- Missouri
- Iowa
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Ohio
This region sits within a darker red zone on the outlook map, indicating higher confidence in above-normal readings.
If verified, this could translate to spring-like conditions across much of the central United States during the first full week of March.
Southern States Join the Warm Pattern
The South and Southeast are also included in the warm outlook.
States such as:
- Texas
- Louisiana
- Mississippi
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Florida
- South Carolina
Are all favored for above-normal temperatures.
For Florida and Gulf Coast states, this may mean early-season warmth pushing daytime highs several degrees above typical early March averages.
West Coast and Rockies Also Trend Warmer
The warm pattern is not limited to the East or South.
The outlook shows:
- California
- Oregon
- Washington
- Nevada
- Utah
- Arizona
- Colorado
- New Mexico
All leaning toward above-normal temperatures.
Mountain regions may still see overnight cold, but daytime highs are likely to run warmer than average.
Alaska Below Normal, Maine Near Normal
In contrast to the widespread Lower 48 warmth, Alaska is forecast to experience below-normal temperatures during the same period. Blue shading across much of the state indicates an elevated probability of colder-than-average conditions.
Meanwhile, Maine stands out as one of the only states in the contiguous U.S. not strongly leaning above normal. The map shows a near-normal temperature outlook for parts of northern New England.
What This Means for Early March
A near-nationwide warm signal suggests:
- Reduced risk of widespread Arctic intrusions
- Accelerated early spring transitions in some regions
- Potential impacts on snowpack in colder states
While long-range outlooks indicate probabilities rather than exact temperatures, the consistency of above-normal shading across nearly the entire Lower 48 is notable.
As early March approaches, ChicagoMusicGuide.com will continue monitoring evolving temperature trends, regional impacts, and any shifts in the national weather pattern that could alter this broad warm outlook.