Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin Forecast to Experience Life-Threatening Wind Chills as Low as –35°F on December 14
UPPER MIDWEST — Forecast Models Show Brutal Arctic Air Plunging Wind Chills Well Below Zero Across Four States
A new ECMWF model projection valid for Sunday, December 14, 2025, shows a surge of bitter Arctic air sweeping across the Upper Midwest, pushing wind chills into dangerously low territory across Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin.
Large portions of the region are forecast to experience feels-like temperatures between –20°F and –35°F, with the coldest readings centered over Minnesota and northern Iowa, where the model highlights minimum values near –37°F.
These levels of cold pose significant risks to anyone exposed for even short periods, and forecasters warn that frostbite could occur in as little as 10–15 minutes under such conditions.
Widespread Sub-Zero Wind Chills Across the Region
The map reveals a broad, uniform push of extreme cold:
Minnesota
- The coldest values appear here, with projected wind chills of –30°F to –37°F.
- Northern and central Minnesota fall deep within the cold core of Arctic air.
Iowa
- Most of the state is shown in the –20°F to –34°F range.
- The worst conditions are expected in the northern half, where wind chills rival Minnesota’s.
Illinois
- Northern and western Illinois may see –20°F to –30°F wind chills.
- Chicago’s surrounding counties appear especially vulnerable to sub-zero conditions.
Wisconsin
- Wind chills between –10°F and –25°F dominate the state, extending from Milwaukee inland toward central and northern areas.
- Lakeshore regions may be slightly less severe but still well below zero.
These values represent wind chill, not actual air temperature — meaning the combination of cold air and strong winds makes conditions feel significantly colder.
Why These Wind Chills Are So Dangerous
Wind chill values in this range can cause:
- Frostbite in 10–15 minutes, especially on fingers, ears, and exposed facial skin
- Hypothermia, even with brief exposure
- Rapid heat loss, making outdoor work or travel hazardous
- Increased strain on heating systems, raising the risk of mechanical failure
Cold of this magnitude is typically associated with deep Arctic air outbreaks, often following strong cold fronts or clipper systems.
Travel, Safety, and Community Impacts
Residents across Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin should prepare for:
- Dangerous road conditions from flash freezing and persistent cold
- Possible delays in public transit operations
- Risk to vulnerable populations, including the elderly and unhoused
- School and outdoor event cancellations if conditions worsen
- Higher electricity usage and potential stress on the grid
Local officials in many Midwest communities typically issue warming center information when wind chills become life-threatening.
Meteorologists Urge Caution Ahead of the Cold Surge
While the model offers a strong signal, forecasters note that:
- Exact wind speeds may shift as the date approaches
- A stronger Arctic high could drive temperatures even lower
- Local areas may see colder micro-climates, especially rural regions
Nevertheless, the overall consensus is clear: a significant early-winter Arctic outbreak is likely, and residents should be prepared.
How to Prepare for Extreme Wind Chill
Experts recommend:
- Limiting outdoor exposure
- Wearing multiple insulated layers
- Keeping emergency supplies in vehicles
- Protecting pets from outdoor cold
- Monitoring local advisories and wind chill warnings
Even small lapses — such as forgetting gloves — can lead to injury during wind chills below –20°F.
Stay with ChicagoMusicGuide.com for continued updates on this developing Arctic outbreak, updated wind-chill projections, and regional weather coverage throughout December.