Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and North Carolina Enter Late-January Snow Window as Colder Pattern Expands Across the Southeast
UNITED STATES — A broad shift toward colder weather is underway across the eastern United States, increasing the possibility of wintry precipitation across parts of the Southeast later this month. While widespread snow is far from guaranteed, updated ensemble guidance now places northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, central Georgia, and western North Carolina within a developing zone where snow potential is beginning to rise.
Forecast confidence remains limited, but the overall pattern favors colder air pressing deeper into the region, allowing even modest storm systems to produce winter weather if timing aligns.
Snow Probability Guidance Shows Expanding Signal
Long-range ensemble data from the European model indicates elevated probabilities of at least one inch of snow through January 25 across a corridor stretching from Arkansas into Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the western Carolinas. The highest probabilities remain north of the Gulf Coast, where surface temperatures are more likely to support frozen precipitation.
Southern and coastal areas continue to show minimal risk, with temperatures expected to stay too warm for snow even during precipitation events.
Midweek System Brings Cold, But Limited Snow
A cold front pushing through the Southeast midweek will introduce colder air behind it, especially across northern Mississippi and northern Alabama. While rain will dominate initially, the trailing upper-level trough could briefly support light snow showers or flurries, mainly overnight into early Thursday.
At this time, accumulating snow appears unlikely with this first system due to limited moisture and marginal thermal profiles.
Late-January System Holds More Interest
Greater attention is focused on a potential wave developing around Sunday, January 18, when colder air may already be firmly established across the Southeast. If a storm tracks favorably, this setup could support light accumulating snow across higher elevations and interior sections of Georgia and western North Carolina, with lower but non-zero potential extending into northern Alabama and Mississippi.
However, this remains a conditional setup, and small changes in storm track could result in cold rain instead of snow.
Temperature Trends Support the Pattern Shift
Forecast temperature trends show highs dropping into the 30s and lower 40s, with overnight lows falling into the teens and 20s across interior portions of the Southeast. These temperatures support snow potential if precipitation occurs, particularly during overnight hours.
Bottom Line
Despite increasing talk of snow across the Southeast, no high-confidence snow event is currently locked in. The pattern does support colder air and a growing snow window, but meaningful accumulation will depend on exact storm timing and placement.
Residents across Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and North Carolina should stay informed as confidence improves, but there is no reason for alarm or panic at this time.
ChicagoMusicGuide.com will continue monitoring model trends and provide updates as the late-January pattern becomes clearer.