New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine Expected to Stay Colder Than Normal Through Christmas Week as Long-Range Models Drop Earlier Warmup Signal
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES — Updated model guidance now shows a significant shift away from the previously advertised well-above-average Christmas warmup, with temperatures instead expected to remain average to slightly below average across much of the Northeast heading into Christmas week. This marks the fourth long-range modeling reversal in recent days, as earlier projections of a major warm surge across the region continue to fade.
Meteorologists analyzing the latest ensemble data note that although some moderation from the current aggressive cold pattern is likely, no strong warming signal is emerging for New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, or Maine. Instead, recent model trends show persistent cooler-than-normal air dominating through December 20–25, especially across northern New England.
What the Latest Model Data Shows
New temperature-anomaly projections for the December 20–25 period highlight a broad stretch of 2–9 degrees below normal covering much of the northeastern United States.
• Northern New York and Vermont may run 5–9 degrees colder than average.
• New Hampshire and interior Maine show anomalies between 4–8 degrees below normal.
• Southern portions of the region, including coastal areas, remain closer to 1–3 degrees below normal, but still lack any indication of a regional warm surge.
This cooler setup contradicts earlier long-range forecasting that suggested a pronounced holiday warmup. Current global patterns show no supporting teleconnection that would allow such a warm surge to develop.
Why the Warmup Failed to Materialize
Forecasters point to several large-scale atmospheric factors:
1. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Remains Dominant
The NAO continues to exert major influence heading into the holiday period. Its current behavior supports cooler, not warmer, conditions across the Northeast.
2. The MJO Has Entered a Null Phase
The Madden-Julian Oscillation is expected to remain inactive for the next 1–2 weeks, limiting the potential for amplified warm patterns in North America.
3. MJO Expected to Emerge Into Phase 8 After New Year
This phase typically favors stormier and more dynamic patterns in the eastern United States, setting the stage for early-January storm discussions, but offering little support for a Christmas warmup.
State-by-State Temperature Outlook
New York
Temperatures will generally trend 3–7 degrees below average, with northern New York likely running colder than southern regions. No significant warm periods are expected before Christmas Eve.
Vermont
Model data shows 5–9 degrees below normal, particularly across central and northern Vermont. Snow cover in parts of the state will reinforce the cooler pattern.
New Hampshire
Expected anomalies range from 4–7 degrees below average, with the strongest departures in the White Mountains and northern zones.
Maine
Interior and northern Maine display the largest negative anomalies, consistently between 6–9 degrees below average. Coastal Maine trends slightly milder but still near or below normal.
What This Means Heading Into Christmas
Residents hoping for a “torch-mas” style warm holiday should be prepared for the opposite. While the extreme arctic air from mid-December will relax somewhat, the region is still projected to experience seasonal to slightly colder conditions, not the major warm breakout previously suggested.
Forecasters emphasize that the overall pattern supports a cooler Christmas week, with temperatures in many areas running below the seasonal norm.
A more active and potentially stormier setup may develop after New Year, once global patterns align more strongly.
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