North Carolina and South Carolina Snow Chances Fade as Cold Air Timing Limits Accumulation Potential This Weekend
South Carolina are once again at the center of a closely watched winter weather setup as forecasters monitor a developing system expected to move through the region this weekend. While early model runs sparked excitement among snow watchers, the latest data suggests cold air may arrive too late for meaningful snowfall across much of the Carolinas, turning what could have been a winter event into a largely rain-dominated system with only limited wintry potential.
Cold Air Timing Remains the Biggest Limiting Factor
The primary concern shaping this forecast is the timing and depth of cold air across North Carolina and South Carolina. Meteorologists indicate that temperatures ahead of the system will likely remain above freezing for most locations, especially east of Interstate 95, making it difficult for snow to accumulate.
Current projections show the best overlap of moisture and colder air setting up between I-95 and I-85, primarily across inland portions of the Carolinas. Even there, ground temperatures remain relatively mild, which could significantly reduce accumulation. Coastal areas, including parts of the Pee Dee region, are expected to stay warmer longer, increasing the likelihood of rain with only brief or isolated mixing late in the event.
Most Likely Outcome Favors Rain With Limited Wintry Mix
Based on the most recent guidance, the most likely scenario calls for mainly rain across large portions of South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with some areas seeing light snow or sleet mixing in late Saturday night or early Sunday as colder air gradually filters southward.
Any snowfall that does occur is expected to be light and spotty, with accumulations, if they happen at all, confined to areas west of I-95. Even in those zones, temperatures hovering near or above freezing could prevent snow from sticking effectively, limiting impacts to grassy or elevated surfaces.
Model Differences Add to Forecast Uncertainty
Weather models continue to show notable disagreement. The ECMWF (European) model suggests a weaker system with limited cold air intrusion, favoring light precipitation totals and minimal snow. Meanwhile, the GFS model shows a colder and snowier solution, but forecasters caution that this model has overestimated cold air in recent events.
Given the lack of consistent support across multiple models, confidence in a higher-impact winter scenario remains low. Forecasters stress that while conditions could trend slightly colder in later updates, current data does not support a widespread or disruptive snow event.
Localized Slick Spots Still Possible Sunday Night
Even though widespread snow appears unlikely, localized slick spots could still develop late Sunday night, particularly in inland areas where temperatures dip closer to freezing after precipitation tapers off. Bridges, overpasses, and untreated roads would be the most vulnerable if brief snow or sleet occurs.
Residents across North Carolina and South Carolina are encouraged to stay alert for updated forecasts, especially those traveling early Monday morning in areas west of I-95.
Why This System Is Unlikely to Be a Major Winter Event
Despite lingering hope among snow enthusiasts, meteorologists emphasize that this setup lacks the strong, well-timed cold air needed for a significant winter storm in the Carolinas. While minor adjustments could still increase snow chances slightly, the overall pattern points toward limited impacts, with rain remaining the dominant precipitation type.
This system may technically end the region’s snow drought in a few isolated spots, but for most communities, it will likely be a noticeable but low-impact winter weather event rather than a memorable snowfall.
For continued weather updates, regional forecasts, and detailed impact breakdowns, visit ChicagoMusicGuide.com, where we track developing systems across the country and explain what they mean for your weekend plans.