Georgia and Tennessee Under Expanded Slight Risk as SPC Upgrades North Georgia Including Atlanta, Rome and Gainesville With Growing Tornado and 74+ MPH Wind Threat
ATLANTA, GEORGIA — The Storm Prediction Center’s early afternoon update has expanded severe weather concerns across Georgia and Tennessee, upgrading all of North Georgia — including Atlanta, Rome, Gainesville and Dalton — to a Level 2 out of 5 Slight Risk for Sunday, March 15.
The update shows a broader and more organized severe setup than earlier outlooks suggested, with tornado and damaging wind probabilities increasing across much of the region.
All of North Georgia Now in Slight Risk
The categorical outlook now places the entire North Georgia region in the yellow-shaded Slight Risk zone. This includes:
- Atlanta, Georgia
- Rome, Georgia
- Gainesville, Georgia
- Dalton, Georgia
- Athens, Georgia
- Macon, Georgia
Cities along the I-75 and I-85 corridors are now firmly within the upgraded risk area.
Parts of southeastern Tennessee, including Chattanooga, Tennessee and surrounding communities, also remain within the broader severe risk zone.
Tornado Risk Expanded to 5 Percent
The tornado probability map shows the 5 percent risk area expanding eastward compared to the morning update.
Areas that were previously in a 2 percent tornado zone are now under a 5 percent probability, including:
- Atlanta, Georgia
- Rome, Georgia
- Dalton, Georgia
- Gainesville, Georgia
- Chattanooga, Tennessee
Additionally, CIG 1 hatching remains in place across parts of the region, indicating the potential for isolated stronger tornadoes rated EF2 or higher.
While this does not guarantee tornadoes, it signals an environment supportive of rotating storms capable of producing damaging spin-ups.
Severe Wind Risk Also Expanded
The severe wind outlook has also grown more aggressive.
The 10 percent wind risk area has expanded into areas that were previously under a 5 percent designation earlier in the day. Much of North Georgia and parts of southeastern Tennessee are now included in the elevated wind corridor.
CIG 1 hatching for wind — representing potential gusts of 74 mph or greater — has expanded as well.
This suggests the primary threat across Atlanta, Rome, Gainesville and Chattanooga will likely be damaging straight-line winds capable of downing trees and causing scattered power outages.
Hail Risk Introduced in Afternoon Update
The afternoon package also introduced a 5 percent severe hail risk across portions of the region.
While hail is not expected to be the dominant hazard, stronger cells embedded within the line or discrete storms ahead of it could briefly produce hailstones.
Timing and Next Steps
No further Day 2 updates are expected until the outlook transitions into a Day 1 forecast overnight.
Storm development is expected later Sunday, with the most active window likely during the late afternoon and evening hours across:
- Chattanooga, Tennessee
- Dalton, Georgia
- Rome, Georgia
- Atlanta, Georgia
- Gainesville, Georgia
Residents should prepare for the possibility of:
- Damaging winds
- A few tornadoes
- Lightning and heavy rain
- Isolated hail
Why This Upgrade Matters
The expansion of both the 5 percent tornado risk and 10 percent wind risk signals increased confidence in storm organization and intensity.
When tornado probabilities expand geographically and wind hatching grows, it typically reflects stronger upper-level support and improved low-level wind shear.
For North Georgia and southeastern Tennessee, that means a higher chance that storms could maintain strength as they track through major population centers.
With Atlanta and surrounding metro counties now fully under the Slight Risk designation, residents are urged to monitor watches and warnings Sunday.
Stay with ChicagoMusicGuide.com for continuing updates as the Day 1 outlook and possible watches are issued overnight.