Intense Arctic Blast Poised to Strike the Mid-South Next Weekend as Models Show Tennessee at the Center of Extreme Temperature Crash

NASHVILLE, TN — A powerful surge of arctic air is forecast to slam the Mid-South next weekend, with Tennessee emerging as the center of the most intense temperature anomalies on multiple long-range weather models. Meteorologists warn the region could experience one of its sharpest December cold outbreaks in years, with temperatures running 15–25 degrees below normal.

Model Maps Highlight Tennessee as the Coldest Core of the Outbreak

A series of updated maps from GFS, ECMWF, and ensemble temperature anomaly products show a concentrated zone of extreme cold stretching across:

• Tennessee
• Kentucky
• Northern Mississippi
• Northern Alabama
• Eastern Arkansas

The deepest anomalies — shown in magenta and purple — consistently center over Tennessee, signaling departures of 20°F or more below average between December 13 and December 16.

A risk outlook map included in the forecast places the Mid-South under a “Moderate Risk” of extreme cold December 14–15, with a broader “Slight Risk” extending into Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia through December 16.

New Data Shows the Cold Growing More Severe With Each Model Run

Meteorologists analyzing the output say the cold risk is being underestimated by many forecasters because the key atmospheric parameter highlighted in ensemble runs is not being considered widely.

The latest GFS temperature anomaly maps show:

• A rapidly expanding cold core diving southeast
• The most intense shading directly across Tennessee and Kentucky
• Extreme cold spreading into Mississippi, Alabama, and Arkansas
• A tightening temperature gradient surrounding the Mid-South, reinforcing the arctic plunge

One analyst noted:
“It’s only going to get worse.”
Each updated run shows colder, not milder, conditions for the Mid-South.

Coldest Mid-South Air Since Early Year Likely

If the pattern holds, Tennessee and surrounding states could experience:

• The coldest temperatures since February
• Wind chills dropping into the single digits or near zero in some areas
• Widespread freezes across Mississippi, Alabama, and Arkansas
• Rapid drops in surface temperatures behind the arctic front

Given the depth of the cold signature, this could be a multi-day extreme cold event, not just a brief shot of arctic air.

Residents Urged to Prepare for a Significant Cold Event

Meteorologists warn Mid-South residents to begin preparing for:

• Elevated heating demand
• Possible impacts to livestock and agriculture
• Very low wind chills during morning hours
• A risk of ice formation if moisture interacts with the incoming cold front

More detailed temperature forecasts will emerge as the event nears, but confidence is high that the Mid-South — especially Tennessee — will be hit hard.

Are you in Tennessee or another Mid-South state? Share your local updates and temperature forecasts with us at ChicagoMusicGuide.com.