Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Louisiana Face Slight Severe Weather Risk as Jet Stream Dips South on Friday, January 9
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY — Parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South, including Mississippi, Tennessee, western Kentucky, eastern Arkansas, and central Louisiana, are under a Level 2 out of 5 “Slight Risk” for severe weather on Friday, January 9, as a fast-moving storm system interacts with warm, humid air surging northward ahead of an upper-air disturbance.
Why Severe Weather Is Possible on Friday
Forecast data shows an upper-level trough diving southeast from the Rockies, forcing the jet stream to kink southward across the central United States. As this occurs, Gulf moisture is expected to stream north, setting the stage for a narrow but active corridor of thunderstorms across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
While this is a winter system, the combination of lift, moisture, and strong winds aloft is enough to support organized storms, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday.
Areas Included in the Slight Risk Zone
The Storm Prediction Center’s highlighted zone includes several major population centers and surrounding communities, such as:
- Mississippi: Jackson, Greenville, Vicksburg
- Tennessee: Memphis
- Kentucky: Paducah
- Arkansas: Mississippi Delta region
- Louisiana: Alexandria and nearby areas
These locations sit closest to the strongest overlap of wind energy and instability shown in the data.
Primary Threats: Damaging Winds and Isolated Tornadoes
The main concern with this setup is locally damaging wind gusts, potentially exceeding 60 mph in the strongest storms. Forecast soundings also suggest enough low-level wind shear for a few brief, spin-up tornadoes, especially within stronger storm cells embedded along a broken line of thunderstorms.
Large hail is considered a secondary risk, but cannot be ruled out entirely where storms briefly intensify.
What Limits the Threat
Despite the elevated concern, instability remains modest, which should prevent this from becoming a widespread or long-lived outbreak. The severe threat will likely be conditional and localized, depending on how efficiently storms tap into available moisture and wind energy.
Even so, it is notable that this risk area has been identified five days in advance, something that has been relatively uncommon since mid-October.
Looking Ahead
Storms are expected to move quickly, which should limit flooding concerns, but also means little warning time if stronger storms develop. Residents in the risk area should stay weather-aware through Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening commute window.
Further adjustments to the risk area and threat level are possible as the system approaches.
Stay weather-aware and follow ongoing updates as this system develops. For more regional weather coverage and forecast breakdowns, visit ChicagoMusicGuide.com and join the conversation.