Most of the U.S. Expected To See Little or No Christmas Snow as European Model Highlights Snowfall Mainly in the Mountain West and Far Northeast

UNITED STATES — New European model data for Christmas week suggests that much of the country may experience a snow-free holiday, with the only significant snowfall projected for portions of the Mountain West and a small area of the upper Northeast.

According to the latest European Model snowfall forecast, most major U.S. cities—including Chicago, St. Louis, Dallas, Atlanta, Washington D.C., New York City, and Los Angeles—show no measurable snow for Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. Forecasters say the pattern is being dominated by a large, persistent ridge over the south-central United States, which is blocking colder air from expanding eastward or southward.

While early-season outlooks sometimes show wide snow coverage, this updated model indicates well below-average holiday snow potential for most states.

Mountain West Stands Out as the Main Region Expecting Snow

The European Model highlights Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, and the Sierra Nevada region as the primary zones where snow could fall between December 24–25.

Key projections include:

Widespread 1–6 inches of snow across elevated terrain
Locally 6–12 inches in parts of Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho
Heavier pockets near the Wasatch and Sierra ranges

Lower-elevation cities such as Denver, Salt Lake City, Reno, and Boise may see light accumulations or mixed precipitation, depending on temperatures.

Upper Northeast Could See Light Snow, but Widespread Winter Weather Is Unlikely

The model shows limited snowfall in:

Northern New York
Northern Vermont
New Hampshire
Parts of Maine
Quebec and Ontario regions just north of the U.S. border

Amounts remain generally under 3 inches, suggesting minor travel impacts at most.

With temperatures expected to stay above freezing for much of the Mid-Atlantic and New England corridor, the probability of a classic “white Christmas” continues to be very low for millions.

Why So Little Snow? A Strong Ridge Is Blocking Storm Development

Meteorologists point to a broad ridge of high pressure centered over the south-central U.S., which is preventing colder Arctic air from pushing into the Midwest, East Coast, and Deep South.

This pattern leads to:

Warmer-than-normal temperatures
Weaker storm systems
Limited moisture interaction with cold air
Suppressed chances of snow outside mountainous regions

Unless the ridge shifts or breaks down—which the model does not currently indicate—the U.S. holiday period will lean mild and quiet for most.

Travel Impacts: Mostly Favorable, Except in Western Mountains

The projected snowfall pattern means holiday travel should be less hazardous across major interstates and airports outside the Mountain West.

Potential travel trouble spots:

I-80 through Wyoming and Utah
I-70 in Colorado
I-15 corridors in Idaho and Utah
Sierra Nevada passes near California–Nevada border

Elsewhere across the country, road and air travel conditions appear unusually calm for late December.

What’s Next? Model Trends Will Be Watched for Last-Minute Changes

Although current data points strongly toward a low-snow Christmas for most states, meteorologists note that holiday-week forecasts can shift, especially with incoming Pacific energy influencing the jet stream.

ChicagoMusicGuide.com will continue monitoring all major models—including the European (ECMWF), GFS, and Canadian GEM—for any changes that could alter precipitation or temperature trends.