Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia Set for Unusually Warm Christmas Week as Major Pattern Flip Surges Across the Central and Southern U.S.

UNITED STATES — A major shift in the national weather pattern is expected to bring significantly above-average temperatures across the Central and Southern United States during Christmas week, with the strongest anomalies centered over Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Forecast data from NOAA and the ECMWF ensemble indicate that these states could experience 15 to 25 degrees above normal temperatures, with highs reaching the 60s and low 70s on Christmas Day.

This warm surge arrives immediately after a stretch of frigid weather, marking one of the most dramatic early-winter temperature reversals of the season.

Most Impacted States: Where the Warmth Will Be Strongest

Texas

Texas is positioned at the core of the warm anomaly. Forecasts show widespread highs in the upper 60s to low 70s on Christmas Day, including central and southern regions. The warmest temperatures in the country may occur here.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma will also experience substantial warmth. Much of the state is forecast to be 20 to 25 degrees above average, with Christmas Day highs likely in the 60s across central and southern counties.

Arkansas

Arkansas falls directly beneath the strongest temperature ridge. Residents should expect 60s statewide, with some areas potentially touching 70 degrees on December 25.

Louisiana

Louisiana will be warm and humid, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and nighttime lows staying well above seasonal averages. This will be one of the state’s warmest Christmas periods in recent years.

Mississippi

Mississippi is projected to reach low 70s Christmas Day across much of the state. Temperature anomalies of 15 to 20 degrees above normal are likely.

Alabama

Warmer-than-normal conditions will dominate Alabama, with mid to upper 60s expected on Christmas Day and local pockets nearing 70 degrees.

Georgia

Georgia joins the warm surge, especially southern and central regions where Christmas temperatures may climb into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Northern Georgia remains mild, with highs in the 50s to low 60s.

Moderately Impacted States: Warm but Not the Core Zone

Missouri

Missouri will be warmer than normal, with highs generally in the 50s and low 60s, especially across the southern half of the state.

Kansas

Kansas will see above-average warmth as the ridge expands northward, with highs in the 50s and 60s, strongest in southern Kansas.

Illinois

Illinois will observe a more modest warm-up, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s, still 10–15 degrees above normal.

Indiana

Indiana will be mild, reaching the mid-40s to mid-50s, depending on cloud cover and regional wind patterns.

Ohio

Ohio stands on the fringe of the stronger warm anomalies, but Christmas Day temperatures in the 40s and 50s remain likely.

Why the Southern and Central States Are Warming the Most

Meteorologists identify several key drivers:

• A dominant upper-level ridge building across the central U.S.
• Retreat of the polar jet stream, preventing cold intrusions
• Strong southerly flow pulling warm, Gulf-influenced air northward
• Recent reduction in snowpack across southern states, boosting daytime warming

Together, these factors create an environment capable of producing widespread, early-season heat relative to December normals.

Christmas Day: What Residents Should Expect

Based on current long-range trends, many locations across the Central and Southern U.S. will likely observe:

• 60s and 70s across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia
• 50s and 60s in Missouri, Kansas, Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio
• Seasonally mild conditions from the Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas

A region-wide warm Christmas appears increasingly probable.

Forecast Confidence and Next Steps

While the warm pattern is well-supported, forecasters note:

• Final temperature values will become clearer within the 5–7 day window
• Cloud cover, ground moisture, and regional wind shifts could fine-tune local highs
• There remains low risk of late-week cold intrusions, though unlikely given current data

Residents should continue monitoring updated forecasts throughout the week.

Stay Informed

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