Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Mississippi Watch Mid-January Winter Threat as Forecast Models Clash on Snow and Ice Potential
LITTLE ROCK, ARKANSAS — A mid-January winter weather setup is drawing attention across Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Mississippi, but meteorologists caution that confidence remains low as forecast models continue to disagree on how much cold air and moisture will overlap. Updated guidance suggests cold rain will overspread much of the region Wednesday, while the potential for snow or wintry mix remains a wait-and-see scenario as Arctic air trails the system.
Forecast Models Show Different Outcomes for the Mid-South
Meteorologists are closely comparing the GFS (American) and EURO (European) forecast models, which currently paint very different pictures for the Mid-South. The GFS solution shows colder air catching up to lingering moisture late in the system, raising the possibility of wintry precipitation across northern and central Arkansas.
By contrast, the EURO model — which some forecasters view as the more reliable scenario at this time — suggests that most moisture exits the region before temperatures drop low enough to support widespread snow or ice. In this case, the result would be cold rain followed by sharply colder air, rather than a true winter storm.
Cold Rain Likely Across Arkansas Before Arctic Air Arrives
Both models agree on one key point: cold rain is expected to overspread Arkansas on Wednesday, impacting cities such as Little Rock, Fort Smith, Pine Bluff, and Jonesboro. Rainfall may be steady at times, accompanied by falling temperatures as a strong cold front moves through the region.
The uncertainty centers on timing. If Arctic air arrives sooner than expected, brief periods of snow or wintry mix could develop on the back edge of the system. If it arrives later, precipitation will end before wintry weather can take hold.
Limited Snow and Ice Potential Extends Into Tennessee and Mississippi
Farther east, portions of Tennessee and northern Mississippi face similar questions. The GFS shows a narrow band of light snow or mixed precipitation pushing toward western Tennessee, while the EURO keeps most of the region locked in cold rain only.
For now, forecasters stress that significant accumulation appears unlikely, but even small amounts of ice or snow could cause travel issues, especially during early morning hours if surfaces cool rapidly after rainfall.
Why Confidence Remains Low Right Now
This forecast hinges on a delicate balance between departing moisture and incoming subfreezing air. Small changes in storm speed or cold air depth could dramatically alter outcomes. Because of this, meteorologists describe the setup as highly conditional, urging residents not to overreact — but not to ignore it either.
The pattern itself supports winter weather potential, but details are not yet locked in, making short-term updates critical.
What Residents Should Watch For Next
Over the next 24–48 hours, forecasters will look for:
- Clearer alignment between GFS and EURO models
- Better timing on cold air arrival
- Whether rain lingers long enough to interact with freezing temperatures
At this stage, preparation should focus on cold conditions and wet roads, with contingency plans for isolated slick spots if temperatures fall faster than expected.
As winter continues to deliver unpredictable setups across the central and southern U.S., staying informed remains essential. For continued updates on winter weather threats, model trends, and regional impacts affecting travel and events, visit ChicagoMusicGuide.com for the latest forecasts and coverage.