Author: Nina Clarke

OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA — Forecast guidance indicates that severe weather will be possible from March 5 through at least March 10, with the highest early focus centered over the Central to Southern Plains, including Oklahoma, North Texas, and parts of Kansas, before potentially expanding east into Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. Multiple ensemble and…

KANSAS — A new spring tornado density composite built from multiple ENSO transition years is placing Kansas and Oklahoma directly in the center of the highest tornado concentration zone, with density signals extending east into Missouri, Arkansas, and Alabama. The data, which analyzes historical analog years including 1957, 1965, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1997, 2002, 2009,…

ILLINOIS — A strong signal is emerging for widespread heavy rainfall across the eastern half of the United States from March 5 through March 12, with northern Illinois expected to stay warm enough to avoid snow. Ensemble mean precipitation data shows repeated waves of rain and thunderstorms tracking across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Deep…

DALLAS, TEXAS — Long-range forecast analogs are pointing toward a potentially significant escalation in severe weather beginning around March 7 and continuing into mid-March, with Texas, Oklahoma, and much of the Deep South emerging as the most at-risk regions. New ensemble guidance highlights a dynamic upper-level pattern that historically aligns with organized severe weather outbreaks…

NAPLES, FLORIDA — A rapidly growing wildfire in the Florida Everglades has expanded to 25,000 acres and remains 0% contained Tuesday morning, sending a massive smoke plume stretching more than 100 miles across South Florida and over the Florida Keys. The blaze, referred to as the “National Fire,” is burning in the Big Cypress National…

UNITED STATES — A newly released 2026 tornado season forecast is drawing attention across the Midwest and Plains, highlighting a corridor from Oklahoma and Kansas through Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Iowa as an area expected to see above-average tornado activity beginning in mid-March. The outlook map outlines a broad red-shaded zone centered over the nation’s…

DENVER, COLORADO — In one of the most striking temperature contrasts of the season, Denver climbed to 70°F Tuesday evening — making it warmer than every location east of the Mississippi River at that hour. While Colorado basked in springlike warmth, much of the eastern United States remained locked in noticeably cooler air. Denver Warmer…

UNITED STATES — A sweeping warm pattern is expected to dominate much of the country during March 4–10, 2026, with nearly every continental state favored to see above-normal temperatures, according to the latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8–14 Day Temperature Outlook issued February 24. The only major exceptions to the widespread warmth are Alaska, which…

UNITED STATES — Long-range forecast guidance is signaling a possible pattern change during the second week of March, one that could increase precipitation east of the Rockies and raise the risk of storm activity across the Plains, Midwest, and Deep South. While still several days away, multiple model graphics show a developing setup that would…

UNITED STATES — Growing social media chatter about a potential 12 to 20 inch snowstorm next Monday or Tuesday across parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York is running far ahead of what forecast guidance can confidently support. While there are some ingredients in place for a system, long-range snowfall totals being widely shared…