BALTIMORE, MARYLAND — A developing Sunday storm system is creating unusual uncertainty across the Baltimore region, with weather models still sharply divided just two days before impact. While some projections keep the system largely south of the city, the latest ECMWF model guidance indicates precipitation is likely, with a potential for snow north and west…
CALIFORNIA — A powerful Pacific storm is taking aim at Southern California next week, with multiple model runs showing a 250mb jet streak near 180 knots directed straight at Los Angeles from Monday morning through late Wednesday night. The setup, highlighted in Wednesday afternoon guidance, signals a prolonged period of heavy rain and significant impacts…
NORTH CAROLINA — While most forecast models continue to favor a southern track for the Monday storm system, a consistent cluster of ensemble members still suggests the potential for a stronger Mid-Atlantic storm, particularly if interaction with the northern stream materializes. Latest ensemble guidance highlights an area of developing low pressure offshore near the Virginia…
COLORADO — A developing low-pressure system near Elko, Nevada is setting up a stormy stretch for parts of the Rockies as it tracks southeast into northern New Mexico and far southern Colorado Friday into Saturday, bringing widespread mountain precipitation and scattered showers along the Front Range. Current radar imagery shows Colorado positioned beneath the jet…
EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA — A growing nocturnal tornado risk is emerging for Valentine’s Day night (February 14) across parts of East Texas (ETX) and Southwest Louisiana (SWLA), as recent model runs trend toward a stronger severe weather setup. Meteorologists are closely watching the late-evening into overnight window, when ingredients may align for rotating…
WASHINGTON, D.C. — A developing Sunday storm system is keeping forecasters on edge across the nation’s capital, as computer models remain divided on whether the northern fringe of the system reaches far enough north to significantly impact the D.C. metro area. The low-pressure center is expected to pass south of the region, leaving Washington in…
MID-ATLANTIC — While recent model runs no longer show a guaranteed major snowstorm for Sunday into Monday, new ensemble probability data reveals a more complicated picture across the Mid-Atlantic, including parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and southern New York. Most ensemble members do not show significant snowfall. However, among the members that do…
WASHINGTON, D.C. — New model bias data suggests the European weather model (ECMWF) has been running noticeably colder than reality across the Mid-Atlantic following the recent snowfall event in the nation’s capital. Forecasters are now examining whether lingering snowpack feedback is influencing temperature projections and potentially impacting upcoming winter storm forecasts. A 7-day average temperature…
UNITED STATES — New model guidance from both the GFS (Global Forecast System) and the EURO (ECMWF) is signaling a potentially active severe weather setup for February 19–20, stretching from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. While still several days out, forecast shear maps show a classic configuration that could support strong to severe…
PENNSYLVANIA — A potential Sunday late afternoon into Monday morning winter system is creating growing forecast uncertainty across Pennsylvania, as two major weather models show notably different outcomes. While early thinking favors a weaker, southern track with little snowfall, recent ECMWF ensemble trends suggest a more amplified system edging farther north. Forecasters caution that the…