North Carolina Snow Totals Rise as Coastal Loop Feeds Repeated Moisture While Mid-Atlantic Dries Out by Sunday Evening
NORTH CAROLINA — An evening snowfall update from the National Weather Service shows a split-impact winter pattern developing across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, with North Carolina positioned for repeated snow enhancement while areas farther north see snowfall limited by dry subsidence. Forecast maps valid through 7 p.m. Sunday highlight a looping coastal system that continues to feed moisture back into the Carolinas even as the storm’s exit phase suppresses snowfall across the upper Mid-Atlantic.
The result is a sharp contrast in snowfall potential over a relatively short geographic distance.
Coastal Loop Recycles Moisture Back Into North Carolina
The most notable feature in the updated forecast is a looping coastal circulation just offshore, which repeatedly pulls Atlantic moisture westward into central and eastern North Carolina. This looping motion allows snow to persist longer than typical, increasing total accumulations despite the absence of a rapidly intensifying surface low.
Snowfall projections show a broad swath of 6 to 8 inches across much of North Carolina, with localized higher totals where moisture bands repeatedly pivot inland. Eastern and coastal sections show the strongest signal for continued snowfall as the loop remains active into Sunday evening.
This type of moisture recycling is a key reason totals are trending higher in North Carolina compared to surrounding states.
Exit Phase Introduces Dry Subsidence Into the Mid-Atlantic
While North Carolina remains under repeated moisture influence, the storm’s exit phase is already impacting the upper Mid-Atlantic, including Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, and parts of New England. As the system lifts northeast, dry subsidence wraps in behind it, effectively cutting off snowfall potential.
Forecast maps clearly show lighter totals north of Virginia, with many Mid-Atlantic locations receiving 1 to 3 inches or less, despite being closer to the storm’s initial track. This dry intrusion limits snowfall efficiency and prevents meaningful late-stage accumulation.
Virginia Sits Along the Transition Zone
Virginia remains positioned near the gradient between persistent snow and early drying, resulting in a wide range of possible outcomes. Western and southern portions of the state show 3 to 6 inches, while northern areas closer to the Mid-Atlantic dry slot trend lower.
Small shifts in moisture placement could still influence final totals in Virginia, but current guidance favors sharply decreasing snowfall northward as dry air continues to dominate.
Why Snowfall Totals Differ So Sharply by Region
This event highlights how storm structure matters more than storm strength. Instead of a single, fast-moving system, this setup features:
- A looping moisture feed south of the Mid-Atlantic
- An early dry-air intrusion to the north
- Prolonged snowfall where moisture recycling persists
These factors explain why North Carolina remains favored for higher totals even as the broader system begins to weaken.
What to Watch Through Sunday Evening
Forecasters will continue monitoring:
- Persistence of the offshore moisture loop
- Northward extent of dry subsidence
- Snow band placement over central and eastern North Carolina
If the loop weakens faster than expected, snowfall totals could level off sooner. If it holds longer, localized totals may exceed current projections.
As this winter system winds down, North Carolina remains the primary snowfall beneficiary, while much of the Mid-Atlantic transitions toward drier conditions. For continued updates on snowfall trends, storm evolution, and regional weather impacts, visit ChicagoMusicGuide.com.