Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Northern Virginia Sunday Storm Update as Low Pressure Tracks South with Rain and Possible Wet Snow
WASHINGTON, D.C. — A developing Sunday storm system is keeping forecasters on edge across the nation’s capital, as computer models remain divided on whether the northern fringe of the system reaches far enough north to significantly impact the D.C. metro area. The low-pressure center is expected to pass south of the region, leaving Washington in a narrow zone where small shifts could determine whether the day brings steady rain, a brief wintry mix, or little precipitation at all.
The forecast remains highly conditional as meteorologists analyze updated model runs heading into the weekend.
Timing Window for Precipitation
Current projections show the most likely window for precipitation in the Washington, D.C. area between 10 a.m. Sunday and 4 a.m. Monday. However, not all model guidance agrees on how widespread or intense that precipitation will be.
Some solutions indicate the storm’s moisture shield may stay suppressed to the south, brushing only southern portions of the region. Others allow the northern edge of moderate precipitation to expand farther north, potentially covering much of the metro area for several hours.
This fine-line difference explains why forecast confidence remains moderate to low despite the short lead time.
Rain Most Likely, But Wintry Mix Cannot Be Ruled Out
If precipitation reaches Washington, much of it is expected to fall as rain, especially during daytime hours when temperatures should remain several degrees above freezing.
However, forecasters caution that periods of snow or wintry mix remain possible, particularly north of the Capital Beltway. This would most likely occur if precipitation becomes heavy enough to cool the lower atmosphere through dynamic cooling.
Ground temperatures are currently projected to stay above freezing for most of the event, which would limit impactful winter accumulation during the daytime period.
Heavy Precipitation Could Change the Equation
One scenario that meteorologists are watching closely involves heavier rainfall Sunday evening into the overnight hours. If precipitation intensity increases, evaporative cooling and atmospheric cooling could allow rain to briefly transition to wet snow or a rain-snow mix.
In that case, areas north of the Beltway would have the highest chance of seeing slushy accumulation, especially on grassy or elevated surfaces. Even then, impacts would likely be limited unless temperatures cool closer to the freezing mark.
The potential for this changeover remains conditional on storm intensity and track.
Rainfall Totals and Flooding Concerns
Model projections currently range widely, with some solutions indicating 0.5 to 1 inch of liquid precipitation, while others show minimal measurable rainfall if the storm tracks farther south.
Should the heavier rainfall scenario materialize, localized flooding could become a concern. The combination of rainfall and residual snowpack in some areas could increase runoff efficiency, leading to ponding on roadways or minor drainage issues.
However, if the system veers farther south, Washington may experience little more than cloud cover and light showers.
Final Outlook Before Sunday
As the low-pressure center tracks south of the region, Washington, D.C. remains on the northern edge of the storm’s potential influence. Small track adjustments will determine whether the metro area experiences steady rain, brief wet snow, or minimal impact.
Residents should monitor updated forecasts through Saturday as model agreement improves. Travel Sunday afternoon and evening may require extra caution depending on precipitation intensity and potential mixing north of the Beltway.
For continued updates on evolving weather patterns affecting Washington, D.C., and surrounding areas, visit ChicagoMusicGuide.com.